March 13th, 2014, 7:06 PM. White smoke begins to emanate from the chapel following the fifth ballot of 115 cardinal-electors. Now the one billion plus Catholics had a new holy pontif, Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Buenos Aires — now Pope Francis.
No one will ever really know what took place during the Conclave that lasted two days. No doubt a selection was made with the best interests of the church in mind… with a few careers advanced and/or set aside in the process. The only information available to the waiting public: smoke signals at the close of each ballot.
For millions of retail traders trying to determine the direction of the market, they are no better off than those of us watching our television keeping an eye out for white smoke. By the time it arrives, decisions have already been made and those on the inside (the institutions) are the only ones in a position to profit.
Order Flow Sequence Tracking Intelligence puts you directly at the table and allows you to watch the ballot of the market — as it’s counted. This way you can see, maneuver and profit with those on the inside.
The secret vote you need to be watching
It was the continual political interference in the papal selection process that led Gregory X to decree that the cardinal electors be locked up in seclusion. Case in point, King Philip of Spain sent his list of ‘acceptable’ candidates — and he was obliged. This continued until 1903 when monarchs had the ability to veto the result — jus exclusivae.
In every market there is a vote taking place between buyers and sellers. In this case it’s the institutions who enjoy a seat at the table, with full knowledge as to who will come out on top. As votes are cast with each successive auction, or candle, millions of retail traders sit idly by waiting for the result to be advertised with price.
And it’s not just single votes we’re talking about — it’s the aggressive moves that really drive price. Huge positions taken by the institutions that turn a narrow margin between buyers and sellers into a blowout.
Without access to the vote that’s taking place and the positions being taken, your odds of turning a consistent profit with your trades are slim to nothing.
Don’t wait for the smoke — count the votes with the institutions
It’s a chemical mixture, emitted from a charge in the stove that makes the smoke white when a pope has been elected, and black when the two-thirds majority has yet to be reached.
Thanks to Order Flow Sequence Tracking, no charges are needed — you need only look at the delta presented at the close of each candle to see who came out on top. The margin and the direction of the delta can tell you quite a bit, the very moment a candle closes:
- Winner: Who led between buyers and sellers for that particular auction
- Delta: The margin or difference between the two trading forces
- Direction: Whether the margin is gaining momentum or losing steam with each successive candle (auction) — as confirmed by the direction of price
Note the ES example above — with the close of each candle, you can see who won the ‘vote’ — simply by checking the red or green number at the top. Additionally, you can see a summary of the imbalances — the positions taken where there was a 300% or greater size advantage between buyers or sellers.
Those at the table — namely the institutions — know this. More specifically, they are the ones driving the action. Without knowing the delta, you might as well show up to the market’s conclave with a blindfold and earplugs. Or just wait outside like millions of retail traders do.
Knowing the ‘gap’ tells you where your location stands
While speculation abounds with each unresolved vote that takes place in the conclave, only those on the inside really know what’s going on. Who’s consolidating power, who’s making promises, who’s backing who.
In the case of the market, you can pull the door open and take your seat at the table. Whether or not you choose to have a say is up to you… but at least you’ll know exactly what’s going on — as it happens, not after.
Using our ES example, as price barreled upwards, the buyers in green had significant deltas. When they lost steam, the delta decreased, ultimately with the sellers winning. Then price grinded along with relatively smaller deltas. No wonder price shot up.
Setting aside the wealth of intelligence contained within each candle, you have confirmation as to exactly why price is behaving the way that it is. The margin, or delta, tells you the margin that you’re dealing with and the force required to overcome it.
With each candle that follows — if you see that responding force step in — you have your first indication that a swing may be imminent.
Without this initial confirmation, you’re simply guessing.
Why watching for ‘smoke-based’ indicators results in losses
Millions of retail traders lean on an indicator to tell them who’s in charge and what’s happening with price. These are late and inaccurate, far more often than they are right.
Why? They’re price-based. They only tell you what’s happened after the results are in. It’s like entering the office ‘pope pool’ only to find out you were wrong while you watch the newly elected pontiff already waving to the crowds from the balcony. ‘Oh, that guy… I wish I would have paid more attention to Argentina…’
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By tracking the VOLUME of positions taken at any price level within a candle, and the ultimate result with the delta — you have a head start.
Your price-based indicator can’t do this, because it’s not delivering actual ‘vote’ data from the DOM (Depth of Market) to your chart.
Claim your seat at the exclusive table and profit
As the power and wealth of the papacy grew, so did the maneuvering and deal-making that took place during the Conclaves.
The ambitious Cardinal Rodrigo Borgia is said to have paid up big time, delivering ‘four mule-loads of silver worth over 10,000 ducats a year’ to Ascanio Sforza. He got the nod in 1492 and became Pope Alexander VI.
Like the market for retail traders, that Conclave was sealed before it began. Regardless of who’s doing the dealing, you can come out on top in the market’s never-ending Conclave between buyers and sellers. Watch as the institutions, who control 95% of the volume, cast their votes.
Keep an eye on the delta at the close of each candle — telling you who’s in the lead and how wide the margin is. As one side picks up momentum cast your entry and watch for the tide to turn — as it always does. Exit when you see the opposition mount their comeback with Responsive Activity. Like any savvy backroom operator, don’t stay in the fray any longer than you absolutely must.
Take your seat at the table with the institutions — let them duke it out while you profit along the way.